Ipswich Town win 26%Draw 27%Nottingham Forest win 47%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.2–1.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Premier League 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 19 Oct
Table and chances
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top half | Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Win the title | Manchester City (your team) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 21 | 84 | 74–94 | 58% | 99% | >99% | >99% | <1% |
| 2, Top four | Arsenal (your team) | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 | 81 | 71–91 | 37% | 98% | 99% | >99% | <1% |
| 3, Top four | Brighton & Hove Albion (your team) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 16 | 66 | 55–76 | 2% | 59% | 73% | 97% | <1% |
| 4, Top four | Chelsea (your team) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 | 61 | 50–73 | 1% | 35% | 51% | 90% | <1% |
| 5, Top five | Liverpool (your team) | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | 66 | 56–77 | 2% | 58% | 73% | 97% | <1% |
| 6 | Brentford (your team) | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 | 55 | 45–66 | <1% | 13% | 24% | 75% | 1% |
| 7 | Leeds United (your team) | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | 51 | 40–63 | <1% | 7% | 13% | 55% | 5% |
| 8 | Everton (your team) | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 | 48 | 38–58 | <1% | 2% | 5% | 38% | 8% |
| 9 | Hull City (your team) | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 40 | 28–53 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 15% | 36% |
| 10 | Ipswich Town (your team) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | −4 | 9 | 35 | 25–46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 59% |
| 11 | Newcastle United (your team) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | −4 | 8 | 51 | 40–62 | <1% | 5% | 11% | 54% | 4% |
| 12 | Aston Villa (your team) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | −4 | 8 | 53 | 42–64 | <1% | 8% | 16% | 63% | 3% |
| 13 | Manchester United (your team) | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 42–63 | <1% | 8% | 15% | 62% | 3% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace (your team) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | −8 | 7 | 43 | 33–54 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 19% | 20% |
| 15 | Bournemouth (your team) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | −4 | 6 | 49 | 38–60 | <1% | 3% | 7% | 44% | 7% |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur (your team) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | −4 | 6 | 44 | 33–55 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 23% | 18% |
| 17 | Coventry City (your team) | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | −8 | 6 | 34 | 22–46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 65% |
| 18, Relegation to the Championship | Fulham (your team) | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | −3 | 5 | 43 | 32–53 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 19% | 21% |
| 19, Relegation to the Championship | Nottingham Forest (your team) | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | −4 | 5 | 45 | 34–56 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 26% | 15% |
| 20, Relegation to the Championship | Sunderland (your team) | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | −8 | 4 | 40 | 29–52 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 34% |
- Win the title
- Top four
- Top five
- Relegation to the Championship
- Thicker line: zone boundary
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons. Range: 80% of simulated seasons end between these totals.
Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone. “<1%” means under half a percent: rare or never in the simulations, which is not the same as impossible.
Next matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Fri 23 October
Sat 24 October
Aston Villa win 22%Draw 24%Manchester City win 54%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.1–1.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Arsenal win 65%Draw 24%Everton win 11%
Most likely 1–0 (16%)Expected goals 1.8–0.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Coventry City win 28%Draw 28%Fulham win 44%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Chelsea win 54%Draw 23%Tottenham Hotspur win 23%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sun 25 October
Crystal Palace win 35%Draw 26%Newcastle United win 39%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.4–1.5
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Hull City win 27%Draw 27%Brentford win 46%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.1–1.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Liverpool win 48%Draw 24%Brighton & Hove Albion win 28%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.8–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Manchester United win 47%Draw 25%Bournemouth win 28%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.7–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sunderland win 35%Draw 30%Leeds United win 35%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.2–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Finishing positions
Chance of each finishing position, in % of 10,000 simulated seasons. Blank means under 0.5%. Teams are ordered by their average finishing position.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City (your team) | 58 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Arsenal (your team) | 37 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Brighton & Hove Albion (your team) | 2 | 9 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Liverpool (your team) | 2 | 8 | 26 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Chelsea (your team) | 1 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Brentford (your team) | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Aston Villa (your team) | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Manchester United (your team) | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Leeds United (your team) | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Newcastle United (your team) | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Bournemouth (your team) | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Everton (your team) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Nottingham Forest (your team) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Tottenham Hotspur (your team) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |||
| Crystal Palace (your team) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| Fulham (your team) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |||
| Hull City (your team) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | |||
| Sunderland (your team) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | ||||
| Ipswich Town (your team) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 24 | |||||||
| Coventry City (your team) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | ||||||
How the race has moved
Title chances
Teams whose title chance reached 10% at any point. Each panel runs from 0% at the bottom to 75% at the top, 29 Sept to 22 Oct.
Manchester City (your team)58% (was 59%)
Arsenal (your team)37% (was 34%)
Aston Villa (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Aston Villa (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Bournemouth (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Bournemouth (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Brentford (your team)<1% (was 1%)
| Brentford (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| 1% |
Brighton & Hove Albion (your team)2% (was 1%)
| Brighton & Hove Albion (your team) |
|---|
| 2% |
| 2% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 2% |
| 1% |
Chelsea (your team)1% (was <1%)
| Chelsea (your team) |
|---|
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| <1% |
Coventry City (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Coventry City (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Crystal Palace (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Crystal Palace (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Everton (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Everton (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Fulham (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Fulham (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Hull City (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Hull City (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Ipswich Town (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Ipswich Town (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Leeds United (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Leeds United (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Liverpool (your team)2% (was 4%)
| Liverpool (your team) |
|---|
| 2% |
| 2% |
| 2% |
| 1% |
| 4% |
| 4% |
Manchester United (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Manchester United (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Newcastle United (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Newcastle United (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Nottingham Forest (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Nottingham Forest (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Sunderland (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Sunderland (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Tottenham Hotspur (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Tottenham Hotspur (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 19 Oct | 58% | 37% |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | 60% | 35% |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 64% | 31% |
| 17 Oct | 12 Oct | 65% | 31% |
| 12 Oct | 10 Oct | 55% | 38% |
| 10 Oct | 20 Sept | 57% | 36% |
Relegation chances (18th–20th)
Chance of finishing 18th–20th, for teams whose chance reached 20% at any point. Each panel runs from 0% at the bottom to 100% at the top, 29 Sept to 22 Oct.
Coventry City (your team)65% (was 80%)
Ipswich Town (your team)59% (was 75%)
Hull City (your team)36% (was 36%)
Sunderland (your team)34% (was 17%)
Fulham (your team)21% (was 17%)
Tottenham Hotspur (your team)18% (was 23%)
Arsenal (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Arsenal (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Aston Villa (your team)3% (was 4%)
| Aston Villa (your team) |
|---|
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 6% |
| 4% |
| 4% |
Bournemouth (your team)7% (was 6%)
| Bournemouth (your team) |
|---|
| 7% |
| 8% |
| 13% |
| 12% |
| 10% |
| 6% |
Brentford (your team)1% (was 1%)
| Brentford (your team) |
|---|
| 1% |
| 2% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
Brighton & Hove Albion (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Brighton & Hove Albion (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Chelsea (your team)<1% (was 1%)
| Chelsea (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| 1% |
| <1% |
| 1% |
Crystal Palace (your team)20% (was 19%)
| Crystal Palace (your team) |
|---|
| 20% |
| 20% |
| 15% |
| 15% |
| 18% |
| 19% |
Everton (your team)8% (was 4%)
| Everton (your team) |
|---|
| 8% |
| 8% |
| 9% |
| 6% |
| 4% |
| 4% |
Leeds United (your team)5% (was 4%)
| Leeds United (your team) |
|---|
| 5% |
| 5% |
| 6% |
| 5% |
| 4% |
| 4% |
Liverpool (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Liverpool (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Manchester City (your team)<1% (was <1%)
| Manchester City (your team) |
|---|
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
| <1% |
Manchester United (your team)3% (was 2%)
| Manchester United (your team) |
|---|
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| 2% |
Newcastle United (your team)4% (was 1%)
| Newcastle United (your team) |
|---|
| 4% |
| 4% |
| 5% |
| 3% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
Nottingham Forest (your team)15% (was 9%)
| Nottingham Forest (your team) |
|---|
| 15% |
| 16% |
| 14% |
| 15% |
| 8% |
| 9% |
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Coventry City | Ipswich Town | Hull City | Sunderland | Fulham | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 19 Oct | 65% | 59% | 36% | 34% | 21% | 18% |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | 56% | 59% | 35% | 35% | 21% | 24% |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 59% | 60% | 36% | 28% | 22% | 25% |
| 17 Oct | 12 Oct | 58% | 64% | 30% | 28% | 29% | 25% |
| 12 Oct | 10 Oct | 78% | 63% | 35% | 25% | 25% | 21% |
| 10 Oct | 20 Sept | 80% | 75% | 36% | 18% | 17% | 21% |
Projected points
Average final points across the simulated seasons, for the teams in the two charts above. Each panel runs from 20 points at the bottom to 90 at the top, 29 Sept to 22 Oct.
Manchester City (your team)84 (was 82)
Arsenal (your team)81 (was 79)
Tottenham Hotspur (your team)44 (was 43)
Fulham (your team)43 (was 44)
Sunderland (your team)40 (was 45)
Hull City (your team)40 (was 40)
Ipswich Town (your team)35 (was 31)
Coventry City (your team)34 (was 29)
Aston Villa (your team)53 (was 51)
| Aston Villa (your team) |
|---|
| 53 |
| 53 |
| 53 |
| 50 |
| 51 |
| 52 |
Bournemouth (your team)49 (was 50)
| Bournemouth (your team) |
|---|
| 49 |
| 49 |
| 47 |
| 47 |
| 47 |
| 50 |
Brentford (your team)55 (was 58)
| Brentford (your team) |
|---|
| 55 |
| 55 |
| 55 |
| 57 |
| 57 |
| 58 |
Brighton & Hove Albion (your team)66 (was 61)
| Brighton & Hove Albion (your team) |
|---|
| 66 |
| 66 |
| 63 |
| 63 |
| 63 |
| 61 |
Chelsea (your team)61 (was 57)
| Chelsea (your team) |
|---|
| 61 |
| 61 |
| 61 |
| 59 |
| 59 |
| 56 |
Crystal Palace (your team)43 (was 44)
| Crystal Palace (your team) |
|---|
| 43 |
| 43 |
| 46 |
| 46 |
| 44 |
| 44 |
Everton (your team)48 (was 51)
| Everton (your team) |
|---|
| 48 |
| 48 |
| 48 |
| 50 |
| 51 |
| 50 |
Leeds United (your team)51 (was 52)
| Leeds United (your team) |
|---|
| 51 |
| 51 |
| 52 |
| 52 |
| 52 |
| 52 |
Liverpool (your team)66 (was 67)
| Liverpool (your team) |
|---|
| 66 |
| 66 |
| 66 |
| 64 |
| 67 |
| 67 |
Manchester United (your team)52 (was 54)
| Manchester United (your team) |
|---|
| 52 |
| 52 |
| 53 |
| 53 |
| 53 |
| 54 |
Newcastle United (your team)51 (was 56)
| Newcastle United (your team) |
|---|
| 51 |
| 51 |
| 51 |
| 53 |
| 56 |
| 57 |
Nottingham Forest (your team)45 (was 48)
| Nottingham Forest (your team) |
|---|
| 45 |
| 45 |
| 46 |
| 46 |
| 48 |
| 48 |
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Manchester City | Arsenal | Tottenham Hotspur | Fulham | Sunderland | Hull City | Ipswich Town | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 19 Oct | 84 | 81 | 44 | 43 | 40 | 40 | 35 | 34 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | 84 | 81 | 43 | 43 | 40 | 40 | 35 | 36 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 84 | 80 | 42 | 43 | 42 | 40 | 35 | 36 |
| 17 Oct | 12 Oct | 85 | 80 | 42 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 34 | 36 |
| 12 Oct | 10 Oct | 82 | 80 | 43 | 41 | 42 | 40 | 34 | 29 |
| 10 Oct | 20 Sept | 82 | 79 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 40 | 31 | 29 |