Ipswich Town win 26%Draw 27%Nottingham Forest win 47%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.2–1.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Premier League 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 19 Oct
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 15th (9%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | 2% | Top five |
| 6th | 3% | |
| 7th | 4% | |
| 8th | 5% | |
| 9th | 5% | |
| 10th | 6% | |
| 11th | 7% | |
| 12th | 8% | |
| 13th | 9% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 9% | |
| 16th | 8% | |
| 17th | 9% | |
| 18th | 7% | Relegation |
| 19th | 5% | Relegation |
| 20th | 3% | Relegation |
Nottingham Forest's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)1% (was 3%)
Relegation (18th–20th)15% (was 9%)
Projected points45 (was 48)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 1% | 15% | 45 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 1% | 16% | 45 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 2% | 14% | 46 |
| 17 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 2% | 15% | 46 |
| 12 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 3% | 8% | 48 |
| 10 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 3% | 9% | 48 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Ipswich Town win 26%Draw 27%Nottingham Forest win 47%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.2–1.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Brentford win 48%Draw 26%Nottingham Forest win 26%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.6–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Nottingham Forest win 19%Draw 24%Manchester City win 57%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.0–1.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Nottingham Forest win 18%Draw 27%Arsenal win 55% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 0–1 (13%)Expected goals 0.8–1.6
Full timePrediction made
Crystal Palace win 36% (what happened)Draw 30%Nottingham Forest win 34%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.3–1.2
Full timePrediction made