Real Madrid win 72%Draw 18%Celta Vigo win 10%
Most likely 2–0 (13%)Expected goals 2.3–0.7
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Real Madrid (your team)
La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 8 Nov
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 09 Dec). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Now and projected
- Position
- 2nd
- after 12 played
- Points
- 30
- won 10, drawn 0, lost 2
- Proj. pts
- 87
- range 78–95
- Goals
- 31–10
- difference +21
Chances
- Title
- 23%
- 1st
- Top four
- >99%
- 1st–4th
- Top five
- >99%
- 1st–5th
- Top half
- >99%
- 1st–10th
- Relegation
- <1%
- 18th–20th
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Finishing position
Most likely: 2nd (60%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 75%.
- Title (1st)
- Top four (1st–4th)
- Top five (1st–5th)
- Relegation (18th–20th)
Show the numbers
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 23% | Title |
| 2nd | 60% | Top four |
| 3rd | 15% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | <1% | Top five |
| 6th | <1% | |
| 7th | <1% | |
| 8th | <1% | |
| 9th | <1% | |
| 10th | <1% | |
| 11th | <1% | |
| 12th | <1% | |
| 13th | <1% | |
| 14th | <1% | |
| 15th | <1% | |
| 16th | <1% | |
| 17th | <1% | |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
| 19th | <1% | Relegation |
| 20th | <1% | Relegation |
Chances over time
Real Madrid's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 12 Nov. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 100% at the top; projected points from 80 to 90.
Title (1st)23% (was 14%)
Top four (1st–4th)>99% (was 97%)
Relegation (18th–20th)<1% (was <1%)
Projected points87 (was 80)
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | 8 Nov | 23% | >99% | <1% | 87 |
| 8 Nov | 7 Nov | 28% | >99% | <1% | 87 |
| 7 Nov | 6 Nov | 23% | >99% | <1% | 86 |
| 6 Nov | 2 Nov | 24% | >99% | <1% | 86 |
| 2 Nov | 1 Nov | 24% | >99% | <1% | 86 |
| 1 Nov | 31 Oct | 21% | >99% | <1% | 85 |
| 31 Oct | 30 Oct | 24% | >99% | <1% | 85 |
| 30 Oct | 26 Oct | 23% | >99% | <1% | 84 |
| 26 Oct | 25 Oct | 23% | 99% | <1% | 84 |
| 25 Oct | 24 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 24 Oct | 23 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 23 Oct | 21 Oct | 13% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 11% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | 15% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | 14% | 97% | <1% | 80 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | 14% | 97% | <1% | 80 |
Next matches
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sat 21 November
Sat 28 November
Real Madrid win 78%Draw 15%Alavés win 7%
Most likely 2–0 (13%)Expected goals 2.5–0.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Wed 2 December
Real Sociedad win 21%Draw 23%Real Madrid win 56%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.1–2.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sun 6 December
Athletic Bilbao win 23%Draw 26%Real Madrid win 51%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.0–1.6Time to be confirmed
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Recent matches
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured. ✓ marks what happened.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sat 7 November
Valencia win 17%Draw 23%Real Madrid win 60% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 0–1 (12%)Expected goals 0.9–1.8
Full timePrediction made
Sun 1 November
Racing Santander win 10%Draw 15%Real Madrid win 75% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 0–2 (9%)Expected goals 0.9–2.8
Full timePrediction made
Sun 25 October
Barcelona win 55%Draw 21%Real Madrid win 24% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 2–1 (9%)Expected goals 2.1–1.4
Full timePrediction made
Sun 18 October
Real Madrid win 75% (what happened)Draw 16%Sevilla win 9%
Kick-off Most likely 2–0 (12%)Expected goals 2.5–0.8
Full timePrediction made