Barcelona win 55%Draw 21%Real Madrid win 24%
Most likely 2–1 (9%)Expected goals 2.1–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Real Madrid (your team)
La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Now and projected
- Position
- 3rd
- after 9 played
- Points
- 21
- won 7, drawn 0, lost 2
- Proj. pts
- 82
- range 73–91
- Goals
- 23–9
- difference +14
Chances
- Title
- 12%
- 1st
- Top four
- 99%
- 1st–4th
- Top five
- >99%
- 1st–5th
- Top half
- >99%
- 1st–10th
- Relegation
- <1%
- 18th–20th
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Finishing position
Most likely: 2nd (56%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 75%.
- Title (1st)
- Top four (1st–4th)
- Top five (1st–5th)
- Relegation (18th–20th)
Show the numbers
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12% | Title |
| 2nd | 56% | Top four |
| 3rd | 26% | Top four |
| 4th | 5% | Top four |
| 5th | 1% | Top five |
| 6th | <1% | |
| 7th | <1% | |
| 8th | <1% | |
| 9th | <1% | |
| 10th | <1% | |
| 11th | <1% | |
| 12th | <1% | |
| 13th | <1% | |
| 14th | <1% | |
| 15th | <1% | |
| 16th | <1% | |
| 17th | <1% | |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
| 19th | <1% | Relegation |
| 20th | <1% | Relegation |
Chances over time
Real Madrid's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 100% at the top; projected points from 80 to 90.
Title (1st)12% (was 14%)
Top four (1st–4th)99% (was 97%)
Relegation (18th–20th)<1% (was <1%)
Projected points82 (was 80)
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | 12% | 99% | <1% | 82 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 11% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | 15% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | 14% | 98% | <1% | 81 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | 14% | 97% | <1% | 80 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | 14% | 97% | <1% | 80 |
Next matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sun 25 October
Sun 1 November
Racing Santander win 10%Draw 14%Real Madrid win 76%
Most likely 0–2 (9%)Expected goals 0.9–2.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sat 7 November
Valencia win 18%Draw 23%Real Madrid win 59%
Most likely 0–1 (11%)Expected goals 0.9–1.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Recent matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sun 18 October
Real Madrid win 75% (what happened)Draw 16%Sevilla win 9%
Kick-off Most likely 2–0 (12%)Expected goals 2.5–0.8
Full timePrediction made
Sat 10 October
Real Madrid win 66% (what happened)Draw 18%Villarreal win 16%
Kick-off Most likely 2–1 (9%)Expected goals 2.4–1.1
Full timePrediction made