Atlético Madrid win 75%Draw 16%Deportivo La Coruña win 9%
Most likely 2–0 (12%)Expected goals 2.5–0.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 18th (13%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | <1% | Top four |
| 5th | 1% | Top five |
| 6th | 2% | |
| 7th | 2% | |
| 8th | 3% | |
| 9th | 3% | |
| 10th | 4% | |
| 11th | 5% | |
| 12th | 6% | |
| 13th | 7% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 8% | |
| 16th | 10% | |
| 17th | 11% | |
| 18th | 13% | Relegation |
| 19th | 11% | Relegation |
| 20th | 6% | Relegation |
Deportivo La Coruña's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 50% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)<1% (was 1%)
Relegation (18th–20th)30% (was 25%)
Projected points40 (was 43)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | <1% | 30% | 40 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | <1% | 29% | 41 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | <1% | 30% | 41 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 1% | 28% | 41 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 1% | 29% | 41 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 1% | 27% | 42 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 1% | 28% | 42 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 1% | 25% | 43 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 1% | 26% | 43 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 2% | 26% | 43 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Atlético Madrid win 75%Draw 16%Deportivo La Coruña win 9%
Most likely 2–0 (12%)Expected goals 2.5–0.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Deportivo La Coruña win 40%Draw 27%Osasuna win 33%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.4–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Espanyol win 51%Draw 26%Deportivo La Coruña win 23%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.6–1.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Deportivo La Coruña win 43%Draw 24% (what happened)Levante win 33%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.7–1.4
Full timePrediction made
Real Sociedad win 57% (what happened)Draw 23%Deportivo La Coruña win 20%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.9–1.0
Full timePrediction made