Real Madrid win 72%Draw 18%Celta Vigo win 10%
Most likely 2–0 (13%)Expected goals 2.3–0.7
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 8 Nov
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 09 Dec). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 10th (10%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | 2% | Top five |
| 6th | 5% | |
| 7th | 7% | |
| 8th | 8% | |
| 9th | 9% | |
| 10th | 10% | |
| 11th | 9% | |
| 12th | 9% | |
| 13th | 8% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 7% | |
| 16th | 6% | |
| 17th | 5% | |
| 18th | 4% | Relegation |
| 19th | 2% | Relegation |
| 20th | 1% | Relegation |
Celta Vigo's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 12 Nov. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 60.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)1% (was 3%)
Relegation (18th–20th)6% (was 6%)
Projected points47 (was 49)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | 8 Nov | <1% | 1% | 6% | 47 |
| 8 Nov | 7 Nov | <1% | 1% | 6% | 48 |
| 7 Nov | 6 Nov | <1% | 1% | 6% | 48 |
| 6 Nov | 2 Nov | <1% | 1% | 6% | 48 |
| 2 Nov | 1 Nov | <1% | 1% | 6% | 48 |
| 1 Nov | 31 Oct | <1% | 1% | 5% | 48 |
| 31 Oct | 30 Oct | <1% | 3% | 3% | 50 |
| 30 Oct | 26 Oct | <1% | 2% | 3% | 50 |
| 26 Oct | 25 Oct | <1% | 2% | 3% | 50 |
| 25 Oct | 24 Oct | <1% | 4% | 3% | 50 |
| 24 Oct | 23 Oct | <1% | 4% | 3% | 51 |
| 23 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | 4% | 3% | 51 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 4% | 3% | 51 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 4% | 3% | 51 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 3% | 5% | 49 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 3% | 5% | 49 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 3% | 5% | 49 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 2% | 6% | 49 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 3% | 6% | 50 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 3% | 6% | 49 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 3% | 6% | 50 |
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Real Madrid win 72%Draw 18%Celta Vigo win 10%
Most likely 2–0 (13%)Expected goals 2.3–0.7
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Celta Vigo win 37%Draw 26%Villarreal win 37%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.4–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Barcelona win 80%Draw 13%Celta Vigo win 7%
Most likely 2–0 (10%)Expected goals 2.9–0.8Time to be confirmed
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured. ✓ marks what happened.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Celta Vigo win 53%Draw 24% (what happened)Levante win 23%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.8–1.1
Full timePrediction made
Rayo Vallecano win 37% (what happened)Draw 29%Celta Vigo win 34%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.2–1.1
Full timePrediction made
Celta Vigo win 42%Draw 26% (what happened)Real Betis win 32%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.5–1.3
Full timePrediction made
Celta Vigo win 50% (what happened)Draw 27%Alavés win 23%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.5–0.9
Full timePrediction made