Alavés win 60%Draw 23%Málaga win 17%
Most likely 1–0 (12%)Expected goals 1.8–0.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Alavés (your team)
La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Now and projected
- Position
- 7th
- after 9 played
- Points
- 11
- won 3, drawn 2, lost 4
- Proj. pts
- 47
- range 37–57
- Goals
- 13–10
- difference +3
Chances
- Title
- <1%
- 1st
- Top four
- 1%
- 1st–4th
- Top five
- 4%
- 1st–5th
- Top half
- 38%
- 1st–10th
- Relegation
- 8%
- 18th–20th
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Finishing position
Most likely: 11th (9%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
- Title (1st)
- Top four (1st–4th)
- Top five (1st–5th)
- Relegation (18th–20th)
Show the numbers
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | 3% | Top five |
| 6th | 4% | |
| 7th | 6% | |
| 8th | 7% | |
| 9th | 8% | |
| 10th | 8% | |
| 11th | 9% | |
| 12th | 8% | |
| 13th | 9% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 8% | |
| 16th | 6% | |
| 17th | 6% | |
| 18th | 5% | Relegation |
| 19th | 2% | Relegation |
| 20th | 1% | Relegation |
Chances over time
Alavés's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)1% (was 3%)
Relegation (18th–20th)8% (was 6%)
Projected points47 (was 49)
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | 1% | 8% | 47 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 1% | 7% | 47 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 1% | 7% | 47 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 3% | 6% | 49 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 3% | 6% | 49 |
Next matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Fri 23 October
Sat 31 October
Barcelona win 82%Draw 12%Alavés win 6%
Most likely 3–0 (11%)Expected goals 3.0–0.7
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Fri 6 November
Sevilla win 46%Draw 27%Alavés win 27%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.5–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Recent matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sun 18 October
Celta Vigo win 50% (what happened)Draw 27%Alavés win 23%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.5–0.9
Full timePrediction made
Sat 10 October
Alavés win 26%Draw 26%Atlético Madrid win 48% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.0–1.5
Full timePrediction made