Rayo Vallecano win 38%Draw 30%Athletic Bilbao win 32%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.0
CancelledPrediction as of · nothing locks until the match is rescheduled
An earlier prediction (made ) was voided: cancelled. It won't be scored.
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La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 7th (11%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | 1% | Top four |
| 4th | 5% | Top four |
| 5th | 9% | Top five |
| 6th | 11% | |
| 7th | 11% | |
| 8th | 10% | |
| 9th | 10% | |
| 10th | 9% | |
| 11th | 7% | |
| 12th | 7% | |
| 13th | 5% | |
| 14th | 5% | |
| 15th | 3% | |
| 16th | 3% | |
| 17th | 2% | |
| 18th | 1% | Relegation |
| 19th | 1% | Relegation |
| 20th | <1% | Relegation |
Athletic Bilbao's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 50 to 60.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)6% (was 10%)
Relegation (18th–20th)2% (was 2%)
Projected points52 (was 55)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | 6% | 2% | 52 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 10% | 1% | 55 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 9% | 2% | 55 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 10% | 2% | 54 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 10% | 1% | 55 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 10% | 2% | 55 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 10% | 2% | 55 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 10% | 2% | 54 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 11% | 2% | 55 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 11% | 2% | 55 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Rayo Vallecano win 38%Draw 30%Athletic Bilbao win 32%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.0
CancelledPrediction as of · nothing locks until the match is rescheduled
An earlier prediction (made ) was voided: cancelled. It won't be scored.
Athletic Bilbao win 47%Draw 33%Getafe win 20%
Most likely 1–0 (19%)Expected goals 1.1–0.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Athletic Bilbao win 47%Draw 26%Real Sociedad win 27%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.5–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Osasuna win 37%Draw 29%Athletic Bilbao win 34%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.2–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Levante win 37% (what happened)Draw 27%Athletic Bilbao win 36%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.3–1.3
Full timePrediction made
Valencia win 36%Draw 29% (what happened)Athletic Bilbao win 35%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.1
Full timePrediction made
Rayo Vallecano win 37%Draw 30%Athletic Bilbao win 33%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.0
CancelledCancelled · this prediction won't be scored