Rayo Vallecano win 38%Draw 30%Athletic Bilbao win 32%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.0
CancelledPrediction as of · nothing locks until the match is rescheduled
An earlier prediction (made ) was voided: cancelled. It won't be scored.
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Rayo Vallecano (your team)
La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Now and projected
- Position
- 12th
- after 8 played
- Points
- 9
- won 2, drawn 3, lost 3
- Proj. pts
- 48
- range 37–58
- Goals
- 12–17
- difference −5
Chances
- Title
- <1%
- 1st
- Top four
- 2%
- 1st–4th
- Top five
- 6%
- 1st–5th
- Top half
- 42%
- 1st–10th
- Relegation
- 7%
- 18th–20th
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Finishing position
Most likely: 11th (8%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
- Title (1st)
- Top four (1st–4th)
- Top five (1st–5th)
- Relegation (18th–20th)
Show the numbers
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | 2% | Top four |
| 5th | 4% | Top five |
| 6th | 5% | |
| 7th | 7% | |
| 8th | 8% | |
| 9th | 8% | |
| 10th | 8% | |
| 11th | 8% | |
| 12th | 8% | |
| 13th | 8% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 7% | |
| 16th | 6% | |
| 17th | 5% | |
| 18th | 4% | Relegation |
| 19th | 2% | Relegation |
| 20th | 1% | Relegation |
Chances over time
Rayo Vallecano's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)2% (was 2%)
Relegation (18th–20th)7% (was 9%)
Projected points48 (was 47)
Show the numbers
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 2% | 7% | 48 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 47 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 48 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 48 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 48 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 48 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 48 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 2% | 10% | 47 |
Next matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Sat 10 October
Sat 24 October
Rayo Vallecano win 47%Draw 27%Elche win 26%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.5–1.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sat 31 October
Rayo Vallecano win 39%Draw 29%Celta Vigo win 32%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.2–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Sun 8 November
Real Sociedad win 50%Draw 26%Rayo Vallecano win 24%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.6–1.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Recent matches
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Mon 19 October
Getafe win 37%Draw 35% (what happened)Rayo Vallecano win 28%
Kick-off Most likely 0–0 (19%)Expected goals 0.9–0.8
Full timePrediction made
Sat 10 October
Rayo Vallecano win 37%Draw 30%Athletic Bilbao win 33%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.0
CancelledCancelled · this prediction won't be scored