Real Sociedad win 54%Draw 22%Levante win 24%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 11th (8%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | 3% | Top five |
| 6th | 5% | |
| 7th | 6% | |
| 8th | 7% | |
| 9th | 7% | |
| 10th | 8% | |
| 11th | 8% | |
| 12th | 8% | |
| 13th | 8% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 8% | |
| 16th | 6% | |
| 17th | 6% | |
| 18th | 5% | Relegation |
| 19th | 3% | Relegation |
| 20th | 1% | Relegation |
Levante's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)2% (was 2%)
Relegation (18th–20th)9% (was 19%)
Projected points47 (was 45)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | 2% | 9% | 47 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | 1% | 16% | 44 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 1% | 16% | 44 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 1% | 17% | 44 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 1% | 17% | 44 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | 1% | 18% | 44 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 1% | 16% | 45 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 2% | 17% | 45 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 2% | 18% | 45 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 2% | 17% | 45 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Real Sociedad win 54%Draw 22%Levante win 24%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.3
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Levante win 25%Draw 24%Atlético Madrid win 51%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.2–1.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Celta Vigo win 54%Draw 23%Levante win 23%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.9–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Levante win 37% (what happened)Draw 27%Athletic Bilbao win 36%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.3–1.3
Full timePrediction made
Deportivo La Coruña win 43%Draw 24% (what happened)Levante win 33%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.7–1.4
Full timePrediction made
Levante win 45%Draw 25% (what happened)Sevilla win 30%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.6–1.3
Full timePrediction made