Athletic Bilbao win 47%Draw 33%Getafe win 20%
Most likely 1–0 (19%)Expected goals 1.1–0.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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La Liga 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 21 Oct
Note
Cancelled: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao (listed for 10 Oct). It is still simulated as a match to be played (assumption: cancelled matches are almost always replayed). Any locked prediction for it is voided and not scored. If it is scrapped or awarded instead, it goes into configs/awarded_results.yaml.
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 16th (11%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | <1% | Top four |
| 5th | 1% | Top five |
| 6th | 1% | |
| 7th | 3% | |
| 8th | 3% | |
| 9th | 5% | |
| 10th | 5% | |
| 11th | 6% | |
| 12th | 7% | |
| 13th | 8% | |
| 14th | 9% | |
| 15th | 11% | |
| 16th | 11% | |
| 17th | 11% | |
| 18th | 10% | Relegation |
| 19th | 7% | Relegation |
| 20th | 3% | Relegation |
Getafe's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)<1% (was 1%)
Relegation (18th–20th)20% (was 19%)
Projected points42 (was 44)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 21 Oct | <1% | <1% | 20% | 42 |
| 21 Oct | 19 Oct | <1% | <1% | 20% | 42 |
| 19 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | <1% | 18% | 43 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | <1% | 19% | 43 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | <1% | 20% | 42 |
| 16 Oct | 12 Oct | <1% | <1% | 21% | 43 |
| 12 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | <1% | 20% | 43 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | <1% | 22% | 43 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 1% | 19% | 44 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | <1% | 19% | 43 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Athletic Bilbao win 47%Draw 33%Getafe win 20%
Most likely 1–0 (19%)Expected goals 1.1–0.6
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Getafe win 38%Draw 33%Sevilla win 29%
Most likely 0–0 (15%)Expected goals 1.0–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Villarreal win 59%Draw 26%Getafe win 15%
Most likely 1–0 (16%)Expected goals 1.6–0.7
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Getafe win 37%Draw 35% (what happened)Rayo Vallecano win 28%
Kick-off Most likely 0–0 (19%)Expected goals 0.9–0.8
Full timePrediction made
Barcelona win 77% (what happened)Draw 16%Getafe win 7%
Kick-off Most likely 2–0 (15%)Expected goals 2.3–0.5
Full timePrediction made