Marseille win 67%Draw 20%Le Havre win 13%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Ligue 1 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 18 Oct
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 4th (12%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2% | Title |
| 2nd | 8% | Top four |
| 3rd | 10% | Top four |
| 4th | 12% | Top four |
| 5th | 12% | Top five |
| 6th | 11% | |
| 7th | 11% | |
| 8th | 9% | |
| 9th | 7% | |
| 10th | 6% | |
| 11th | 4% | |
| 12th | 3% | |
| 13th | 2% | |
| 14th | 1% | |
| 15th | 1% | |
| 16th | <1% | Play-off place |
| 17th | <1% | Relegation |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
Marseille's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 50% at the top; projected points from 50 to 60.
Title (1st)2% (was 1%)
Top four (1st–4th)33% (was 21%)
Relegation (17th–18th)<1% (was <1%)
Play-off place (16th)<1% (was 1%)
Projected points55 (was 52)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Play-off place | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 18 Oct | 2% | 33% | <1% | <1% | 55 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 1% | 26% | <1% | <1% | 53 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | 2% | 26% | <1% | <1% | 53 |
| 16 Oct | 11 Oct | 2% | 26% | <1% | <1% | 53 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | 1% | 23% | <1% | 1% | 52 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | 1% | 21% | <1% | 1% | 52 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | 1% | 21% | <1% | 1% | 52 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Marseille win 67%Draw 20%Le Havre win 13%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Marseille win 55%Draw 23%Toulouse win 22%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Lens win 46%Draw 24%Marseille win 30%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.7–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Angers win 20%Draw 25%Marseille win 55% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 0.9–1.7
Full timePrediction made
Troyes win 18%Draw 21%Marseille win 61% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–2 (10%)Expected goals 1.1–2.2
Full timePrediction made