Toulouse win 66%Draw 20%Troyes win 14%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Ligue 1 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 18 Oct
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 11th (12%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | 1% | Top four |
| 3rd | 2% | Top four |
| 4th | 3% | Top four |
| 5th | 4% | Top five |
| 6th | 5% | |
| 7th | 7% | |
| 8th | 8% | |
| 9th | 10% | |
| 10th | 11% | |
| 11th | 12% | |
| 12th | 12% | |
| 13th | 10% | |
| 14th | 7% | |
| 15th | 4% | |
| 16th | 2% | Play-off place |
| 17th | 1% | Relegation |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
Toulouse's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 25% at the top; projected points from 40 to 50.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)6% (was 3%)
Relegation (17th–18th)1% (was 5%)
Play-off place (16th)2% (was 5%)
Projected points46 (was 43)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Play-off place | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 46 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 46 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 46 |
| 16 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 43 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 43 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 43 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 43 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Toulouse win 66%Draw 20%Troyes win 14%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Marseille win 55%Draw 23%Toulouse win 22%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Toulouse win 41%Draw 25%Strasbourg win 34%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.6–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Le Mans win 33%Draw 26%Toulouse win 41% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (12%)Expected goals 1.4–1.5
Full timePrediction made
Monaco win 56%Draw 23% (what happened)Toulouse win 21%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.0–1.1
Full timePrediction made