Nice win 19%Draw 22%Paris Saint-Germain win 59%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.0–2.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Ligue 1 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 8 Nov
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 1st (83%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 100%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 83% | Title |
| 2nd | 11% | Top four |
| 3rd | 3% | Top four |
| 4th | 1% | Top four |
| 5th | 1% | Top five |
| 6th | <1% | |
| 7th | <1% | |
| 8th | <1% | |
| 9th | <1% | |
| 10th | <1% | |
| 11th | <1% | |
| 12th | <1% | |
| 13th | <1% | |
| 14th | <1% | |
| 15th | <1% | |
| 16th | <1% | Play-off place |
| 17th | <1% | Relegation |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
Paris Saint-Germain's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 12 Nov. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 100% at the top; projected points from 70 to 80.
Title (1st)83% (was 61%)
Top four (1st–4th)99% (was 95%)
Relegation (17th–18th)<1% (was <1%)
Play-off place (16th)<1% (was <1%)
Projected points75 (was 71)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Play-off place | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | 8 Nov | 83% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 8 Nov | 7 Nov | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 7 Nov | 6 Nov | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 6 Nov | 2 Nov | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 2 Nov | 1 Nov | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 1 Nov | 31 Oct | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 31 Oct | 30 Oct | 84% | 99% | <1% | <1% | 75 |
| 30 Oct | 26 Oct | 80% | 98% | <1% | <1% | 74 |
| 26 Oct | 25 Oct | 74% | 97% | <1% | <1% | 73 |
| 25 Oct | 24 Oct | 74% | 97% | <1% | <1% | 73 |
| 24 Oct | 23 Oct | 73% | 97% | <1% | <1% | 73 |
| 23 Oct | 18 Oct | 73% | 97% | <1% | <1% | 73 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 71% | 97% | <1% | <1% | 73 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | 65% | 95% | <1% | <1% | 71 |
| 16 Oct | 11 Oct | 66% | 95% | <1% | <1% | 71 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | 65% | 96% | <1% | <1% | 71 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | 61% | 95% | <1% | <1% | 71 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | 62% | 95% | <1% | <1% | 71 |
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Nice win 19%Draw 22%Paris Saint-Germain win 59%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.0–2.0
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Paris Saint-Germain win 73%Draw 17%Lorient win 10%
Most likely 2–0 (12%)Expected goals 2.4–0.8
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Toulouse win 19%Draw 23%Paris Saint-Germain win 58%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.0–1.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Home, Draw and Away are the chance of each result. Most likely is the single likeliest score, which can be a draw even when one team is favoured. ✓ marks what happened.
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Paris Saint-Germain win 87% (what happened)Draw 9%Troyes win 4%
Kick-off Most likely 3–0 (12%)Expected goals 3.3–0.6
Full timePrediction made
Le Havre win 11%Draw 19%Paris Saint-Germain win 70% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 0–2 (12%)Expected goals 0.8–2.2
Full timePrediction made
Paris Saint-Germain win 61% (what happened)Draw 21%Lyon win 18%
Kick-off Most likely 2–1 (10%)Expected goals 2.2–1.1
Full timePrediction made
Strasbourg win 23%Draw 22%Paris Saint-Germain win 55% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (10%)Expected goals 1.3–2.1
Full timePrediction made