Monaco win 40%Draw 27%Lille win 33%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.4–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Ligue 1 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 18 Oct
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 3rd (15%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5% | Title |
| 2nd | 15% | Top four |
| 3rd | 15% | Top four |
| 4th | 13% | Top four |
| 5th | 12% | Top five |
| 6th | 10% | |
| 7th | 9% | |
| 8th | 7% | |
| 9th | 5% | |
| 10th | 3% | |
| 11th | 3% | |
| 12th | 2% | |
| 13th | 1% | |
| 14th | <1% | |
| 15th | <1% | |
| 16th | <1% | Play-off place |
| 17th | <1% | Relegation |
| 18th | <1% | Relegation |
Lille's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 75% at the top; projected points from 50 to 60.
Title (1st)5% (was 6%)
Top four (1st–4th)48% (was 49%)
Relegation (17th–18th)<1% (was <1%)
Play-off place (16th)<1% (was <1%)
Projected points58 (was 58)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Play-off place | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 18 Oct | 5% | 48% | <1% | <1% | 58 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | 5% | 47% | <1% | <1% | 58 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | 7% | 53% | <1% | <1% | 59 |
| 16 Oct | 11 Oct | 7% | 55% | <1% | <1% | 59 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | 7% | 54% | <1% | <1% | 59 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | 7% | 50% | <1% | <1% | 58 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | 6% | 50% | <1% | <1% | 58 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Monaco win 40%Draw 27%Lille win 33%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.4–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Lille win 41%Draw 28%Lens win 31%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.3–1.1
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Rennes win 37%Draw 26%Lille win 37%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)Expected goals 1.4–1.4
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Lille win 57%Draw 24% (what happened)Brest win 19%
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (11%)Expected goals 1.8–0.9
Full timePrediction made
Lille win 62% (what happened)Draw 24%Le Havre win 14%
Kick-off Most likely 1–0 (15%)Expected goals 1.7–0.7
Full timePrediction made