Marseille win 67%Draw 20%Le Havre win 13%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
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Ligue 1 2026-27
Updated
Results up to 18 Oct
Proj. pts: average final points across 10,000 simulated seasons; range: 80% of them end between these totals. Chances are the share of simulated seasons that end in that zone; “<1%” is rare, not impossible.
Most likely: 17th (24%)
Chance of each finishing position, from 10,000 simulated seasons. Bars run from 0 to 25%.
| Position | Chance | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | <1% | Title |
| 2nd | <1% | Top four |
| 3rd | <1% | Top four |
| 4th | <1% | Top four |
| 5th | <1% | Top five |
| 6th | <1% | |
| 7th | <1% | |
| 8th | <1% | |
| 9th | <1% | |
| 10th | 1% | |
| 11th | 2% | |
| 12th | 3% | |
| 13th | 5% | |
| 14th | 8% | |
| 15th | 15% | |
| 16th | 21% | Play-off place |
| 17th | 24% | Relegation |
| 18th | 22% | Relegation |
Le Havre's chances after each update, 29 Sept to 22 Oct. The chance panels all run from 0% at the bottom to 50% at the top; projected points from 20 to 40.
Title (1st)<1% (was <1%)
Top four (1st–4th)<1% (was <1%)
Relegation (17th–18th)46% (was 41%)
Play-off place (16th)21% (was 16%)
Projected points29 (was 31)
| Updated | Results up to | Title | Top four | Relegation | Play-off place | Proj. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 18 Oct | <1% | <1% | 46% | 21% | 29 |
| 18 Oct | 17 Oct | <1% | <1% | 36% | 20% | 31 |
| 17 Oct | 16 Oct | <1% | <1% | 38% | 18% | 31 |
| 16 Oct | 11 Oct | <1% | <1% | 41% | 17% | 31 |
| 11 Oct | 10 Oct | <1% | <1% | 43% | 17% | 31 |
| 10 Oct | 9 Oct | <1% | <1% | 40% | 17% | 31 |
| 9 Oct | 20 Sept | <1% | <1% | 40% | 16% | 31 |
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Marseille win 67%Draw 20%Le Havre win 13%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)Expected goals 2.1–0.9
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Le Havre win 12%Draw 19%Paris Saint-Germain win 69%
Most likely 0–2 (12%)Expected goals 0.8–2.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Le Havre win 32%Draw 29%Lorient win 39%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.1–1.2
UpcomingPrediction as of · locks at kick-off
Times in UTC.Kick-off times can still change.
Le Havre win 37%Draw 29%Auxerre win 34% (what happened)
Kick-off Most likely 1–1 (14%)Expected goals 1.2–1.1
Full timePrediction made
Lille win 62% (what happened)Draw 24%Le Havre win 14%
Kick-off Most likely 1–0 (15%)Expected goals 1.7–0.7
Full timePrediction made